Category Archives: who to root for

For those who didn’t already know who to root for this week.

Root for:

Packers over Seahawks.

Panthers over Giants.

*If the first 2 happen, then the Packers clinch a wild card spot in the playoffs.

Redskins over Cowboys.

Enjoy the remainder of the season’s games and Favre’s annual cold-weather collapse.

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Who to Root For: A Statistical Analysis of Green Bay’s Playoff Chances

The latest installment of “Who to Root For” is the simplest yet.  Green Bay must win out, while the two other contenders in the NFC North must lose out.  So our chances are slim and none, to say the least.  But have you ever wondered exactly what the Packers playoff chances are, in more precise terms than “slim and none?”  Well, you’re welcome.  I will analyze the Packers playoff chances using three different models.

1.)  The “Any Given Sunday” Model–Here, I give each team a 50/50 chance of winning each game:

Probability of Packers making playoffs:  .78%

2.)  The “Vikings Always Choke” Model–In this model, I take into account the Vikings propensity for choking by using each team’s winning percentage in the final 3 weeks over the past 5 years and using that as the probability of a win (in the Bears/Packers game, I obviously can’t use both winning percentages because the two percentages don’t total 100%, so I’ll be using the Packers win % since it is higher, and because the Packers have already manhandled the Bears.)  This model is more favorable to the Packers because Green Bay has traditionally finished the season strong, while the Vikings and Bears haven’t.

Probability of Packers making playoffs:  7.43%

3.)  The “Very Subjective, But Potentially Most Accurate” Model:  Try as I might, I could not find any sports betting website that had given odds for Week 16 or 17 (nor did I expect to find any–that’s not how sports betting works.)  Therefore, I will be subjectively judging each team’s probability of winning in each game.  (GB/JAX=55/45%, GB/CHI=50/50%, GB/DET=85/15%; MIN/ARI=43/57%, MIN/ATL=55/45%, MIN/NYG=38/62%; CHI/HOU=60/40%.)

Probability of Packers making playoffs:  1.49%

There you go.  The most generous model gives Green Bay less than an 8% chance of getting into the playoffs.  The least generous puts the probability under 1%.  So to say that our playoff chances are a long shot is an understatement.

Season all but over: Who to root for in Week 15

Awful defense, awful coaching, awful I’ll spare you the analysis of the disastrous game against the Texans.  Just know that it was an all around bad game.  There is something seriously wrong in Green Bay.  I don’t know what has changed from last year to this year (I’m sorry, but saying it’s because Favre left is not a valid excuse), but something is missing on this team.  It will now take a small huge miracle for the Packers to make the playoffs.  

My “Who to Root For” list got a lot simpler this week, as the Packers were eliminated from the Wild Card race.  Green Bay’s only chance now is to somehow win the NFC North.  Let me clarify, not in any way do I believe the Packers are capable of running the table, let alone the Vikings losing out.  I’m just telling you what would need to happen for the Packers to get into the playoffs.  Matchups are ranked on a scale of * to **** (**** being reserved for games that are true, mathematical must-wins to remain in playoff contention.)

Packers over Jaguars ****

Cardinals over Vikings ****

Saints over Bears ***

The only glimmer of hope the Packers have left is that two of Minnesota’s remaining opponents are very solid teams that have already clinched their division, while the other opponent is a fiery Falcons team that is also a playoff contender.  The Packers on the other hand, face the Bears, the Jaguars, and the Lions.  So maybe, just maybe, the Packers will scratch their way into the playoffs.

But don’t count on it.

Packers’ season on life support: who to root for next week.

Green Bay’s playoff dreams are hanging by a thread, and the Packers no longer control their own destiny in the playoff race.  After a few brief rants, I will let you know who to root for next week if the Packers are to have a shot at the playoffs.  Mike Stock, the special teams coordinator, needs to be fired.  Not having a man to return the punt is unforgivable, as is the pitiful return coverage.  Derrick Frost should not be wearing a Packers uniform next week.  Aaron Rodgers is no Brett Favre in the final 2 minutes, at least not yet.  McCarthy should have gone for the TD on 4th and goal at the end of the game–and should have been letting Rodgers throw for the touchdown rather than trying to run into the middle of the stout Carolina D-line.  Ok, rant over.  Now, who to root for next week…I will give each game an importance rating of between 1 and 4 *’s.  (**** will be reserved for games that will eliminate Green Bay from the playoff race with the wrong results:)

Obviously, every game is a must-win for us for the rest of the year…so we must win against Houston.

Jaguars over Bears **

Lions over Vikings ***

Giants over Eagles **

Jets over 49ers *

Saints over Falcons *

Bucs over Panthers **

Ravens over Redskins *

Steelers over Cowboys **

Green Bay’s got Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Chicago left on the schedule.  Not one of those teams has a winning record.  So while our season is on life support, it’s not dead yet.